On 13 April 2026, Japan stopped accepting new Specified Skilled Worker applications for restaurant work. Not paused for a review. Not slowed down. Closed — no new Certificates of Eligibility, no status changes into the field, and the skills test suspended too.
It was the first time since the programme began in 2019 that an entire field shut its doors to new entrants (Immigration Services Agency).
Here's the part almost nobody in India has worked out: it closed because it hit a number, and that number exists for every other field too. Japan's immigration agency publishes each field's ceiling, each field's current headcount, and each field's growth rate — in one table, in Japanese, updated quarterly. Divide the second by the third and you can see, roughly, when each door starts to close.
We did that arithmetic. This article shows you the result: which fields have years of room, which have months, and what it means if you're about to spend the next 12 to 18 months preparing for one.
First, the thing most guides never explain: SSW fields have ceilings
Most articles about the Specified Skilled Worker visa describe the tests, the Japanese level, the salary. Very few mention the mechanism that actually decides whether the door is open when you arrive.
It works like this. Japan does not set one national quota for SSW-1 and leave it there. Instead, the Cabinet sets a 受入れ見込数 — an "expected intake number" — for each field separately, covering a multi-year window. Officially it's a projection. In practice, the immigration agency has stated plainly that it operates it as the upper limit on SSW-1 intake for that field (Immigration Services Agency, Cabinet decision explainer).
Three consequences follow, and they're worth reading twice:
- The ceiling is per field, not per person. Your qualifications are irrelevant to it. A field can be full while you are perfectly qualified for it.
- The ceiling counts people currently in Japan, not people ever admitted. It measures the standing population in that field. So a field fills up more slowly if people leave, go home, or move up to SSW-2 — and faster if everyone stays.
- The ceiling is re-set by Cabinet decision, not by law. It has been re-set twice: on 29 March 2024, and again on 23 January 2026, which set the current numbers running to March 2029 and added three new fields (Immigration Services Agency).
That last point is the honest caveat that runs through this whole article, so let's put it up front: a Cabinet decision can move every date below. What follows is a measurement of the current pace, not a forecast of government policy.
What actually happened to food service — and why it matters to you
On 27 March 2026, the immigration agency announced that from 13 April 2026, new intake into the food service (外食業) field would stop. From that date, Certificates of Eligibility for overseas hires would in principle not be issued, changes of status into food-service SSW would in principle not be approved, and transfers into the "designated activities" preparation status would be refused as well.
The reason given was straightforward. The field's standing population had reached roughly 46,000 by the end of February 2026 against a ceiling of 50,000, and the agency projected it would pass that ceiling around May 2026.
Two details that get lost in the retellings, and both matter:
- People already in the field were not affected. Existing food-service SSW workers can still renew, and can still change employers within the field. It is new entry that stopped.
- There is no announced restart date. The suspension lifts when the numbers allow, or when the Cabinet raises the ceiling. Neither has happened as at the date of this article.
Now hold that story next to the table below, because it's the reason you should take the rest of this seriously.
The table: every field's ceiling, headcount, and runway
The immigration agency publishes a single-page table giving each field's ceiling, its standing population, its fill rate, and its net increase over the past year. Here it is, with one column added.
The runway column is ours: headroom ÷ net annual increase. It is arithmetic on the agency's published figures, not an agency forecast. Everything in the "runway" column is computed by Komichi.
Figures are the immigration agency's provisional end-March 2026 numbers (ISA, 特定技能１号の受入れ見込数及び在留者数について（令和８年３月末時点・速報値）). Ceilings run to March 2029 — roughly three years from the measurement date, which is the number the runway should be compared against.
| Field | Ceiling | In Japan (Mar 2026) | Fill rate | Net growth/yr | Runway (computed by Komichi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food service | 50,000 | 47,714 | 95.4% | +16,498 | Closed to new entry since 13 Apr 2026 |
| Food & beverage manufacturing | 133,500 | 96,367 | 72.2% | +20,509 | ≈1.8 years |
| Nursing care | 126,900 | 74,745 | 58.9% | +26,332 | ≈2.0 years |
| Aviation | 4,900 | 2,577 | 52.6% | +937 | ≈2.5 years |
| Construction | 76,000 | 51,055 | 67.2% | +9,957 | ≈2.5 years |
| Automobile maintenance | 9,400 | 4,925 | 52.4% | +1,646 | ≈2.7 years |
| Agriculture | 73,300 | 39,950 | 54.5% | +9,438 | ≈3.5 years |
| Shipbuilding & marine | 23,400 | 11,471 | 49.0% | +1,514 | ≈7.9 years |
| Fishery | 14,800 | 4,842 | 32.7% | +1,232 | ≈8.1 years |
| Building cleaning | 32,200 | 9,202 | 28.6% | +2,560 | ≈9.0 years |
| Accommodation | 14,800 | 2,207 | 14.9% | +1,365 | ≈9.2 years |
| Industrial product manufacturing | 199,500 | 59,038 | 29.6% | +12,962 | ≈10.8 years |
| Railway | 2,900 | 59 | 2.0% | +49 | ≈58 years |
| Road transport | 22,100 | 333 | 1.5% | +332 | ≈66 years |
| Forestry | 900 | 8 | 0.9% | +8 | ≈110 years |
| Timber industry | 4,500 | 34 | 0.8% | +34 | ≈130 years |
| Linen supply (new Jan 2026) | 4,300 | – | – | – | No data yet |
| Logistics warehousing (new Jan 2026) | 11,400 | – | – | – | No data yet |
| Resource circulation (new Jan 2026) | 900 | – | – | – | No data yet |
| All fields | 805,700 | 404,527 | 50.2% | +105,373 | ≈3.8 years |
The test that makes this credible: it predicts the closure that already happened
Before you act on any model, check whether it gets the known answer right. This one does — and it isn't close.
Run the arithmetic on food service using only the end-March 2026 figures:
- Headroom: 50,000 − 47,714 = 2,286 places
- Net growth: +16,498 per year, which is about 1,375 per month
- 2,286 ÷ 1,375 ≈ 1.7 months from end-March → mid-May 2026
The immigration agency's own stated projection, made a month earlier when it announced the suspension, was that the field would pass 50,000 around May 2026.
Same answer. The model reproduces the government's own forecast for the one field where we can check it — using nothing but the published table. That doesn't make the other rows certain. It does mean they're worth reading.
The five fields in the red zone
A field is in the red zone here if its runway is shorter than the time left in the ceiling window (roughly three years from March 2026 to March 2029). At the current pace, these fields reach their ceilings before the window ends:
1. Food & beverage manufacturing — ≈1.8 years (roughly early 2028) This is the uncomfortable one, and we'll own it: this is the field we and most other guides have been recommending as the alternative for people whose food-service plan collapsed. It has the shortest runway of any open field. It is also absorbing more people per year (+20,509) than any field except nursing care. If a wave of redirected food-service candidates lands here, it fills faster, not slower.
2. Nursing care — ≈2.0 years (roughly early 2028) The lane most often recommended to Indian candidates, partly because the skills test is available in India. It has the largest net intake of any field at +26,332 a year. Its ceiling is generous at 126,900 — but generous ceilings fill quickly when intake is this fast. This does not mean "don't do nursing care." It means the runway is roughly two years, so a plan that takes two years to execute has very little margin.
3. Aviation — ≈2.5 years and 4. Construction — ≈2.5 years Construction is the bigger one for Indian candidates. It sits at 67.2% full — the second-highest fill rate of any open field — with 24,945 places left and about 10,000 going per year.
5. Automobile maintenance — ≈2.7 years Small field (9,400), moderate intake, just inside the window.
Just outside: agriculture, at ≈3.5 years, clears the March 2029 window — but not by much, and not at all if intake accelerates.
Where the headroom actually is
Now the other half of the picture, because this article isn't a warning — it's a map.
Nine fields have runways of eight years or more. Several are barely used at all:
- Industrial product manufacturing — the largest ceiling in the entire programme at 199,500, only 29.6% full, with roughly 140,000 places left. It absorbs about 13,000 people a year. On the current pace it does not fill this decade.
- Building cleaning (22,998 places left), accommodation (12,593 left, only 14.9% full), fishery and shipbuilding — all with 8+ years of room.
- Road transport, railway, forestry and the timber industry — added recently and almost empty. Road transport has a ceiling of 22,100 and 333 people in it. Forestry has eight people in the whole country.
A word of caution on that last group, because low fill rates are not automatically good news. These fields are near-empty for reasons — road transport requires a Japanese driving licence obtained in Japan, which is a real barrier and a separate preparation route of its own. Forestry and the timber industry are tiny by design. Empty is not the same as accessible. Check the actual entry requirements before you treat an empty field as an open one — our what Japanese level you need for each Japan visa guide maps the language bar, and the SSW visa from India guide covers where each test is actually held.
What this changes if you're planning from India
Here's the practical reframe. Most Indian candidates evaluate an SSW field on three things: is there demand, can I pass the test, what does it pay. Add a fourth: how much room is left in it.
Because the timeline is the problem. A realistic SSW preparation from India — Japanese to roughly A2/N4, the sector skills test, finding an employer, the Certificate of Eligibility — commonly runs 12 to 18 months, and often longer. Read that against a field with a two-year runway and the risk becomes obvious. You are not comparing your readiness to the requirements. You are racing a number that has nothing to do with you.
So, three adjustments worth making:
Check the field's status before you pay anyone anything. Not before you apply — before you pay. A closed field does not refund your training fees. Anyone selling you preparation for a suspended field is either not checking or not telling; our guides on verifying a Japan job offer from India and the scams fake Japan agents run cover how to check for yourself in a few minutes.
Prefer a shorter path in a tight field, or a longer path in a roomy one. If you're set on nursing care, the argument for moving faster is now a real one rather than a sales line. If your timeline is genuinely long, the fields with 8+ years of headroom carry far less closure risk for the same effort.
Have a second field in mind that isn't the obvious one. When food service closed, most guidance redirected people to food & beverage manufacturing — which, on these numbers, is the field with the least room left. A better second choice is a green-zone field you can actually qualify for.
And once you've got a field in mind, run the money before you commit. Our Japan salary calculator and tax calculator will show you what a sector wage actually becomes in hand after Japanese deductions — and if you're weighing a few years versus a longer stay, the pension calculator covers what you get back if you leave.
What could change all of these numbers
We would rather tell you the weaknesses than have you discover them. Five things could move every date in that table:
1. The Cabinet can raise the ceilings — and probably will for some fields. It re-set them in March 2024 and again in January 2026. A field near its cap is exactly the kind of thing that gets raised. Food service is the test case: if its ceiling is lifted, intake likely resumes.
2. Growth rates are not straight lines. We used one year's net increase. Real intake moves with the economy, with test capacity, and with employer demand.
3. Movement into SSW-2 drains the SSW-1 count. The ceiling measures the SSW-1 population. Every worker who moves up to SSW-2 leaves that count and frees a place. Eleven fields have a Type 2 route — see the SSW ladder to permanent residency — so those fields may fill more slowly than our figure implies.
4. Ikusei Shuro starts feeding the system from April 2027. The new training-to-work route is designed to graduate people into SSW-1. That is additional inflow that this table's growth rates do not yet capture, and it points towards fields filling faster, not slower. Our Ikusei Shuro 2027 guide explains the route.
5. The three newest fields have no data yet. Linen supply, logistics warehousing and resource circulation were added in January 2026 and showed no resident count at end-March 2026. They may turn out to be genuine openings. There is no evidence either way yet.
The wider picture hasn't changed, and it's the reason ceilings keep getting raised: Japan's labour shortage is structural, not cyclical. We covered the scale of it in Japan needs 11 million workers: exactly where Indians fit. The ceilings are an administrative brake on a system that is, overall, only 50.2% full.
Your five-minute check before you commit to a field
- Name the exact field — not "restaurant work" or "factory work." Food service and food & beverage manufacturing are different fields with different ceilings and different statuses right now.
- Check that field's current status on the official SSW portal (ssw.go.jp) before paying for training, testing or an agent.
- Check whether the skills test is actually running in India or online for that field. When food service was suspended, its test was suspended too.
- Write down your realistic timeline — Japanese, test, employer, Certificate of Eligibility — and compare it honestly against the runway above.
- Pick a green-zone backup you could qualify for with most of the same preparation.
If you're earlier than this and still deciding whether Japan is your route at all, start with how to move to Japan from India and come back to this when you're choosing a lane.