General information for Indian readers, not legal, immigration or financial advice — see the note at the end.

If you or your child is heading to the US for a master's degree, here is the sentence nobody says out loud in the brochure: the degree does not come with a work visa. It comes with a raffle ticket.

That raffle is called the H-1B lottery, the ticket is called OPT, and most families only learn how either one actually works after they've already paid the tuition. This article is the explainer we wish existed before that — what OPT is, exactly how the H-1B draw works, what your real odds are as a fresh graduate in 2026 (not the headline number), three things currently in legal limbo that could change the picture within weeks, and the one alternative — Japan's Highly Skilled Professional (HSP) points system — that lets you check your position before you spend a rupee, rather than after.

This piece is the deep-dive version of the immigration-risk section in our MS-in-Japan-vs-USA comparison — read that first if you want the full cost picture side by side. Here, we go one level deeper into the mechanism itself.

Key takeaway

A US master's degree does not come with a work visa. It comes with a chance to enter a lottery. Here is the chain, in plain terms:

  • After you finish your degree on a US student visa (called an F-1), you get something called OPT — temporary permission to work for 12 months. It is not a work visa; it's a countdown clock.
  • If your degree is in STEM (science, technology, engineering or maths — most engineering and computer-science degrees count), you can add 24 more months, for 36 months (3 years) total.
  • To stay after that, your employer must win you an H-1B — the main US work visa. It's given out by a random draw (a lottery), because far more people apply than there are visas. In the 2026 draw, about 1 in 3 applications were picked (34.9%).
  • From 2027 the draw is no longer equal for everyone. The US now gives higher-paid, more experienced applicants more chances (up to 4 entries each), and an entry-level applicant — where a fresh graduate almost always sits — just one. So a new graduate's odds are now lower than 1 in 3, and the US has stopped publishing the exact figure.
  • There is a side door: a few employers — universities and research non-profits — are allowed to hire on the H-1B without the lottery at all (these are called "cap-exempt"). Worth knowing if your field fits.
  • Japan has no lottery. Its Highly Skilled Professional (HSP) visa is a points checklist: you score points for your degree, salary, age and Japanese ability, and if you reach the bar, you qualify — permanent residence in 3 years at 70 points, or 1 year at 80. You can add up your own score before you spend a rupee.

The one-line difference: the US hands you a raffle ticket whose odds you can't even check; Japan hands you a scorecard you can add up in advance.

Before you act on this

Accuracy block

What's confirmed and in force today (26 Sep 2026): the FY2024–FY2026 H-1B registration and selection counts; the FY2027 weighted-selection process itself (it is running, right now, for every FY2027 petition being filed); OPT's 12-month base period and 24-month STEM extension; the HSP points thresholds (70/80) and the ¥3 million income floor. Confirmed but in litigation, and could move within a week: the $100,000 H-1B payment (currently blocked by a federal court, under appeal) and the DHS rule that would cap F-1 "duration of status" at four years (its effective date was postponed one day before it would have started biting). Both are described below with their current status, not a prediction of the outcome. New since our last pass on this cluster: the 9-11 Response and Biometric Entry-Exit Fee — $4,000 per H-1B petition for "covered employers" — now applies to same-employer extension petitions, not just new hires, from 9 September 2026. This is a direct, ongoing cost on exactly the kind of large IT-services employer that sponsors the most Indian H-1B holders. Reported but not confirmed by any Japanese government source: Nikkei reporting from July–August 2026 that Japan's Immigration Services Agency may raise HSP income thresholds and reweight the points table. No figures, no date, no official confirmation exists as of today. Treat this as a "watch," not a fact — we've flagged where. Who this applies to: Indian F-1 students on OPT or about to be, and the parents weighing whether a US master's is worth the immigration risk on top of the cost. It is not a substitute for advice from a licensed US immigration attorney on your own case, especially anything touching the $100,000 payment or F-1 status.

Part 1: What OPT actually is

Optional Practical Training (OPT) is temporary work authorisation attached to your F-1 student visa, not a separate visa. Finish your degree, apply, and you get up to 12 months to work in a job related to your field. (USCIS, Optional Practical Training)

If your degree is on the US government's STEM list — most engineering, computer science, and many data/analytics master's qualify — and your employer is enrolled in E-Verify, you can apply for a further 24-month STEM OPT extension. That takes your total window to 36 months: one base year plus two extension years. (USCIS, STEM OPT extension)

Here's the part that actually matters for this article: OPT is not permanent. It is a clock. Three years, at most, in which your employer needs to win you an H-1B — or you need another route entirely — before you have to leave the country. Everything below is about what happens inside that clock.

Part 2: How the H-1B lottery actually works

Congress caps the H-1B programme at 65,000 visas a year, plus a separate 20,000-visa exemption for people with a master's degree or higher from a US institution — 85,000 slots in total for employers who are subject to the cap. (USCIS, H-1B Electronic Registration Process, page updated 21 Sep 2026)

Demand runs far above that every year, so USCIS runs it as a lottery:

  1. Employers register electronically, one registration per prospective employee, for a fee, during a window each spring.
  2. USCIS draws enough registrations to fill the cap.
  3. Only if your registration is drawn can your employer actually file the full H-1B petition on your behalf — being selected is permission to apply, not an approved visa.

Here is the historical record, straight from USCIS's own published numbers:

Cap fiscal yearEligible registrationsSelectedSelection rate
FY2024758,994188,40024.8%
FY2025470,342135,13728.7%
FY2026343,981120,14134.9%

(Registration and selection counts are USCIS's own; the percentages are Komichi's arithmetic. The improvement across these three years is mostly the effect of "beneficiary-centric" selection — a 2024 rule change that counts each real person once no matter how many employers register them, which cut duplicate registrations from 408,891 in FY2024 to 7,828 in FY2026.)

The part that changed the whole picture: weighted selection

Starting with the FY2027 cap season, USCIS stopped drawing names with equal odds. In USCIS's own words, it now runs "a weighted selection process which favors the allocation of H-1B visas to higher skilled and higher paid aliens." Every registration is assigned an OEWS wage level for its job and location, and entered into the draw that many times:

OEWS wage levelEntries in the selection pool
Level IV (most experienced/highest paid)4
Level III3
Level II2
Level I (entry level)1

(USCIS, H-1B Cap Season, page updated 21 Sep 2026)

Wage Level I is, by definition, the pay band for someone with no prior experience in the role — which is exactly where a fresh master's graduate on OPT almost always sits. Someone with a few years of experience, hired into a Level II or III role, gets two or three tickets to your one.

USCIS confirmed on 31 March 2026 that the FY2027 cap was reached — but as of today, 26 September 2026, it still has not published how many total registrations came in or how many were selected. (USCIS, FY 2027 H-1B Initial Registration Selection Process Completed) That means the 34.9% figure above is now a historical number, not a current one — and because the new system moves probability away from entry-level candidates specifically, 34.9% is best read as a ceiling for a fresh graduate's odds today, not an estimate of them. Anyone quoting you a precise current percentage for a new graduate is guessing.

And this change lands hardest on Indians specifically: 70% of all H-1B petitions approved in FY2025 went to India-born beneficiaries (283,772 of 406,348). (USCIS, Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, FY2025 PDF) When the rules of the draw change, they change for Indian applicants first, in the largest numbers.

Part 3: Why "three attempts" doesn't fix this

The standard reassurance is: OPT gives you three cap seasons, not one, so your odds compound. On the pre-2027 numbers, three independent draws at 34.9% compound to roughly 72% (Komichi's arithmetic: 1 − (1 − 0.349)³, assuming the rate holds, you get all three attempts, and an employer sponsors you every year). That's a real number, and it's a reasonable one — for someone who registered under the old, unweighted system.

It does not describe an entry-level graduate registering today. Three attempts at an unknown, weighted-down rate is not the same maths as three attempts at 34.9%, and nobody — not USCIS, not us, not a paid consultant telling you otherwise — currently has the number to plug in. What's true instead is a direction: your odds each year are lower than 34.9%, for as long as you're registered at Wage Level I, and they improve automatically the moment your role and pay progress you to Level II.

Part 4: The escape hatches almost nobody explains to students

Most explainers stop at "enter the lottery and hope." Three things are worth knowing before you assume that's the only door.

Cap-exempt employers skip the lottery entirely. By law, institutions of higher education, nonprofit organisations affiliated with a university, and nonprofit or government research organisations are exempt from the H-1B cap — they can sponsor an H-1B at any time of year, no draw involved. (USCIS, H-1B Cap Exemptions Based on Relation or Affiliation) This is why a research-track job at the university you graduated from, a national lab, or a nonprofit research institute is worth a serious look if the field allows it — it is a real, legal path around the raffle, not a loophole.

Registration is one-per-person, by law, and USCIS actively polices it. Every registration requires a signed attestation that no coordination happened to unfairly increase a beneficiary's odds — multiple genuine job offers from unrelated employers are legitimate, but arrangements designed purely to stack entries are fraud, investigated as such, and can get a petition denied or referred for prosecution. Don't let anyone sell you a "guaranteed selection" scheme.

Selection is not approval. Winning the draw only means your employer may file the full H-1B petition — with its own evidence requirements on the job, the wage, and your qualifications. It's the gate to the process, not the end of it.

Part 5: Three things currently in motion — none of them settled

1. The $100,000 payment. A presidential proclamation from September 2025 requires an extra $100,000 payment with certain H-1B petitions filed since 21 September 2025 — about ₹95.9 lakh at today's rate — and a further proclamation extended it to 21 September 2027. It is currently blocked: a federal court in Massachusetts vacated the implementing guidance on 8 June 2026 (State of California v. Mullin), the government sought a stay, and the First Circuit denied that stay on 24 July 2026, finding the government had not shown it was likely to win the underlying case. DHS says it will comply while it "considers next steps" — and that it still plans to collect the payment if the order is ever lifted. (USCIS, H-1B Specialty Occupations, page updated 21 Sep 2026; First Circuit order, No. 26-1699) Nothing here has changed since our last check two days ago — it remains blocked, and remains capable of changing again without much notice.

2. A new fee that specifically hits India-heavy sponsors. Separately from the $100,000 proclamation, DHS finalised a rule on 10 August 2026, effective 9 September 2026, expanding the 9-11 Response and Biometric Entry-Exit Fee: $4,000 per H-1B petition for any "covered employer" — one with 50 or more US employees, of whom more than half are on H-1B or L-1 status. Crucially, the rule now applies this fee to same-employer extension petitions, not just new hires or employer changes, for the first time. (Federal Register, 9-11 Response and Biometric Entry-Exit Fee for H-1B and L-1 Visas) That "covered employer" definition — half or more of the US workforce on H-1B/L-1 — describes exactly the large Indian IT-services firms that sponsor the most H-1B extensions for Indian employees. It's a fresh, ongoing cost with no expiry date attached, and it is worth asking any prospective US employer whether they fall into that category.

3. The F-1 "four-year limit" that almost took effect. DHS published a rule on 17 July 2026 to replace "duration of status" for F-1 students with a fixed admission period — capped at your programme length, never more than four years — and to cut the post-completion grace period from 60 days to 30. It was due to start on 15 September 2026. One day before, on 14 September 2026, a federal court in Massachusetts postponed it, calling it "arbitrary and capricious" (Presidents' Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration v. DHS). Duration of status is still the operative rule today — but this is live litigation, and the rule could still take effect later if the government prevails on appeal. (DHS final rule, 91 FR 44976, govinfo)

The pattern across all three: nothing here is stable. A family pricing a US master's in 2026 is pricing a moving target, not a fixed cost — and that instability is itself the risk, independent of which way any one item eventually resolves.

Part 6: Japan's alternative — a rubric, not a raffle

Japan's Highly Skilled Professional (HSP) status runs on the opposite design principle: instead of a draw, you score points for your degree, income, age, Japanese ability, and a handful of bonus items, and if you clear the bar, there is no lottery standing between you and the outcome.

(Immigration Services Agency, 永住許可に関するガイドライン, revised 24 Feb 2026)

A master's degree, a few years of relevant experience, a normal salary for a skilled professional role, and conversational-to-business Japanese (JLPT N2) routinely add up to 70+ for Indian engineers without any special manoeuvring — you can check your own score for free with our HSP points calculator, and read the full mechanics in our HSP visa guide. High earners can also skip the points table entirely via J-Skip: a master's degree plus ¥20 million a year (or 10 years' experience plus the same income, or 5 years plus ¥40 million for a management role) buys PR eligibility after just one year.

There is a minimum income floor of ¥3 million a year regardless of points, and separately, for the specific question this article is about — can an international student actually convert a study visa into a work visa in Japan — the answer is close to routine, not a draw: of everyone who applied to switch from student to work status in Japan in calendar 2024, 96.7% were approved (39,766 of 41,142 decided). Only 401 of those were Indian nationals — a reminder that this is a genuine opportunity for Indians precisely because so few are using it yet, not because it's crowded. (Immigration Services Agency, 留学生の日本企業等への就職状況, published Nov 2025, CY2024 data (PDF))

One thing to watch, not yet a fact. Japanese business press (Nikkei) reported in July–August 2026 that the government may be considering raising HSP income thresholds and reweighting the points table — but as of the most recent reporting, no specific figures, revised point allocations, or implementation date had been officially announced, and Japan's Immigration Services Agency has not confirmed anything. Treat this as a "watch this space" item, not a reason to change your plans today — we'll update this article the moment there's an official proposal to verify.

None of this means Japan pays better than the US — it doesn't, and we've said so at length in the pillar and the MS-vs-USA comparison. What it means is narrower and, for a risk-averse family, arguably more useful: you can find out where you stand before you commit any money, which is a thing the US system does not currently offer anyone.

Part 7: How to actually use this

If a US master's is genuinely on the table, run these questions in order, not the cost table first:

  1. What wage level will your realistic first US job actually be? If it's an entry-level role, you are Level I today — one ticket. If you're coming in with real prior experience into a senior opening, you're not, and this entire article matters less to you.
  2. Can the degree pay for itself even if the visa never comes? Price the Indian-market outcome alone, with no US work authorisation at all. If the answer is no, the H-1B odds are carrying weight they shouldn't have to.
  3. Would your prospective US employer be a "covered employer" under the new $4,000 extension fee — and would they still sponsor you three years from now once that cost is recurring?
  4. Is a cap-exempt route realistic for your field — a research role at a university, lab, or nonprofit research institute — before you assume the lottery is the only door?
  5. Only then, compare it to Japan's rubric. If your honest answer is "I'd rather know my odds in advance than gamble on a better payoff," check your HSP score and read what the IT and software job market in Japan actually looks like for Indians right now.

The US remains the right call for plenty of people — a funded PhD, a role at a specific company that only exists there, research where the lab is the destination. What changed in 2026 is that "OPT gives you three years to sort out your visa" quietly stopped being true for the graduates it was always supposed to reassure most.

This article is general information for Indian readers, not legal, immigration, or financial advice. Immigration rules, court rulings, and fees change — sometimes mid-cycle and while litigation is pending. Verify every figure against the linked primary source before you act, and take advice from a licensed professional — a US immigration attorney for anything touching the H-1B, OPT, or F-1 status, or a Japanese immigration specialist (行政書士) for an HSP application — for your own situation. Komichi is not affiliated with any government, university, employer, or immigration agency.